Welfare of Population as a Factor for Market Capacity Forecasting on the Basis of the Nursery Stock Market of Latvia

A.Miglavs, I.Leimane, A.Krieviņa, Latvijas Valsts agrārās ekonomikas institūts (LVAEI)

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Welfare of Population as a Factor for Market Capacity Forecasting on the Basis of the Nursery Stock Market of Latvia

A.Miglavs, I.Leimane, A.Krieviņa


Latvian State Institute of Agrarian Economics (LSIAE)


Current state of Latvian nursery sector 

Latvian nursery sector - growing and sale of trees, shrubs and flowers used for improvement and greening of  living-space 

Industrially undeveloped sector, with the main problems regarding:

Small production volumes and fragmented production structure;

Lack of specialization;

Low level of capital investments;

Orientation towards direct sales (retail)


Uncertainty about the market potential- limiting factor for the development  

Lack of market information (the sector has practically not been studied so far) has largely hindered appropriate investment decisions and the development of the sector. 

low intensity in acquisition of co-funding from the available European Union prestructural (SAPARD) and structural funds show that

Evaluation of market capacity...

No direct data available, which could be used for calculation;

The main factors influencing the demand and consumption of nursery stock include (according to the experts of the sector):

Development of construction industry;

Development of the welfare of population, 

GDP growth per capita - universal indicator for describing the both 


Is there the relationship between the GDP per capita and the development level of nusery sector? 

Correlation between the levels of population welfare and plant consumption (observed in other countries)

Expenditures for plants according to income level in Latvia

Expenditures for “miscellaneous goods and services” (which include also plants), % from total expenditures by quintile in Latvia in 2006


Expenditures for 

“miscellaneous goods

and services” grow by

larger income













Market capacity forecast in Latvia (using the obtained correlation equation)

Current consumption of plants - total market capacity – Ls 6.6 mio (2006), which gives Ls 2.88 per capita, 

Total market capacity in 2010 – Ls 11.6 mio, in 2015 – Ls 16,7 mio (GDP and population figures based on forecasts of Ministry of Economics and LAS Economic Institute) 

The positive trend is anticipated to continue at least till 2030, when the EU-15 average level of GDP per capita is achieved

May be it’s worthwile  to use this method for evaluation of market capacity also in other new and little-researched industries


Latvijas Valsts agrārās ekonomikas institūts (LVAEI)


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