Citas ziņas sadaļā
Evaluation of Environmental and Economic Performance of Crop Production in Relation to Crop Rotation, Catch Crops, and Tillage
Assessment of carbon dioxide emissions from different tillage systems
Sojas šķirņu un audzēšanas tehnoloģiju ekonomiskās efektivitātes novērtējums uz eksperimentālās izpētes pamata
Shrinking governance. Economical aspects in Latvian case
Improving of Small Farm Market Capability in Latvia
The Role of Agribusiness in Maintenance of Future Rural Employment in Latvia
Competitiveness of Latvian Agri-business in Regional Context
Iedzīvotāju labklājības attīstība kā tirgus ietilpības prognozēšanas faktors (uz Latvijas stādu tirgus piemēra)
Economic Analysis of the Value Adding Chain in Milk sector
Different CAP support systems - evaluation of the impact on supply of agricultural products
Zin.publikācijas![]() Prognosis of Demand, Output and Supply of Foodstufs and Raw Amaterials for IndustryVisvaldis Pirksts, Latvijas Valsts agrārās ekonomikas institūts (LVAEI)
31.05.1993 Visvaldis Pirksts report in Finnish-Baltic Joint Seminar, Saku, Estonia, published in 'Agricultural Development Problems and Possibilities in Baltic Countries in the Future' (1993) Agricultural Economics Research Institute, Finnland, ISBN 952-9538-35-9, ISSN 0788-5393, pages 55-57 Oriģinālajā salikumā lasāms PDF fails pielikumā PROGNOSIS OF DEMAND, OUTPUT AND SUPPLY OF FOODSTUFFS AND RAW MATERIALS FOR INDUSTRY VISVALDIS PIRKSTS In order to determine the total amount of agricultural products to he produced, the point to proceed from is the forecasts as to consumption of agricultural products. This is why we calculate per capita consumption of the primary agricultural. Based on output analysis for the years 1986 to 1989, we can draw a conclusion that the consumption of primary agricultural products has been rather stable. There is a certain decrease in calories balance caused by decline in sugar consumption.
- very much - sugar; In 1992 the polarity in consumption of primary foodstuffs increased in Latvia. In the families with the highest income level, the daily calories balance (2937) was equal to that of previous years and fully covered their demands. However, the calories balance within the lowest income group (1909 cal.) was 1,5 times less and did not correspond to the standards of rational nutrition. The most conspicuous differences were in milk and dairy products consumption - 1,8 times, vegetable and vegetable oil - 1,9 times, sugar - 2,1 times, eggs, meat and meat products - 2,2 times, fruit and berries - 2,3 times. Considering the consumption of primary foodstuffs in Latvia and other countries, the changes in household income during the last period, the principles of scientifically - based nutrition standards, forecasts have been made for the consumption level: the optimum, the average and the minimum. For the calculation of the minimum level, the data on consumptionof primary foodstuffs in low income households in 1991 and 1992 and standards of the "crisis minimum" were taken in consideration. It is envisaged to substitute the reduction in consumption meat and dairy products by increasing the consumption of potatoes, bread and bread products. In order to include the visiting or temporary residing population in the total foodstuff balance for the country,the calculations were done for the total number of population of 2,7 million.
Bread and Bread Products Theoretically, the agriculture of Latvia is capable of supplying the population of Latvia with bread and bread products, with the exception of some crops like rice and corn, which would not grow in Latvia, and some, like buckwheat and heat with high gluten contents, which breading are complicate. In connection with this, we are compelled to purchase 100 thousand tons of bread wheat in 1993. In future, when the Latvian farmers will be able to raise wheat with sufficient gluten contents, it will be possible to reduce import considerably. Potatoes The analysis of the trends in potato production give a sufficient ground for the conclusion that there will be enough potatoes to meet the demand for consumption as a foodstuff. Vegetables Last year the acreage planted with vegetables noticeably increased in the subsidiary farms and kitchen - gardens, which will improve the foodstuff balance for many families. Some of the vegetables like water-melons and melons will be imported, so the demand on vegetables will be met. Fruit and Berries Taking in consideration that the large orchards have been privatized and taken better care of which will increase the productivity; and that fruit import will increase in volume (pineapples, oranges, bananas, tangerines, lemons, grapefruits etc.) the demand will be met. Sugar In the last few years only one-third of the sugar consumed in Latvia was made from sugarbeet, the remaining two-thirds were produced from imported Cuban raw sugar. In 1991 the imports reduced and certain difficulties appeared. In 1993 it is planned to harvest 350 to 400 thousand tons of sugar-beet, which will cover only 65% of the minimum (only about 16 kg per capita). Milk and Dairy Products The number of dairy cows is continuing to decrease in Latvia, so it should be expected that the milk output in 1993 will be about 1080 thousands tons. After the deduction of the amount required for reproduction of herd, the result will be only 360 kg of milk per capita or 96% of the minimum. Meat and Meat Products Simultaneously with the reduction in the number of dairy cows, also the herd of cattle is reducing. The number of pigs and poultry is decreasing still more rapidly. In 1993 about 134 thousand tons (slaughter weight) of meat will be produced, which will comprise only about 83% of the minimum consumption level, or 50 kg capita annually. Eggs The decrease in poultry production is more than anywhere else in livestock production. The projections are that about 430 million eggs will be produced in 1993. Considering that about 6% are used for incubation in order to reproduce the number of poultry, it can be expected that only 150 eggs per capita will be left for consumption, which is 75% of the minimum. Oil seeds Though the conditions in Latvia are favourable for raising arrested and extracting arrested oil, we are still importing ali of vegetable. Only about 700 ha have been planted in the autumn of 1992, and the yield, in the best case, would be about 1000 tons of seed, which will be an insignificant amount. Fibre Flax In order to prevent the decrease of flax producing the produces price for flax fibre should be increased to the level of grain price, so that at least the best flax-producing farms (6 centners of flax fibre per ha and more) would continue flax operations. It would require 122 million LVR (in 1992 prices) to cover this price difference for the 4000 tons of flax fibre. |